Cross-Border Update: “Thank a Canuck for Spending a Buck”… and Don’t Cheese Them Off

July 2025

Many of you will recognize the phrase above — a favorite of the always-memorable Mike Kent, a beloved member of our business community. He’d say it on his KGMI radio show, at events, and pretty much anywhere he could. We wish Mike well as he is enjoying a well-earned retirement in a sunnier climate.

The second half of that phrase — “don’t cheese them off” — comes from a recent experience I’ll share in a moment. But first, let’s talk about something important: our cross-border economy and what we’ve been hearing from local businesses.

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Business Impacts of Cross-Border Tensions

In partnership with Western Washington University’s Border Policy Research Institute, the Chamber recently surveyed local businesses to better understand how the ongoing trade war and current federal policies (of this year) are affecting our economy. For clarity, I define this “trade war” broadly — including tariffs, counter-tariffs, trade policy shifts, and political rhetoric.

Initial results are clear and significant:

👉 52% of surveyed local businesses report being negatively impacted.

The top concerns cited:

• Rising costs (actual or anticipated tariffs)

• Decreased revenue (linked to reduced Canadian visits and broader economic pressure)

• Fewer Canadian customers — and more of them feeling, well… cheesed off

📊 [Click here to view the infographic – PDF]

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A Glaring Data Gap

One major takeaway: we lack the tools to measure these impacts thoroughly.

The two primary data points we have are:

1. Southbound border crossing numbers, tracked monthly

2. Occasional license plate surveys conducted every few years

These are helpful — but far from sufficient. We know, for example, that southbound crossings were down 25–45% from February through May 2025 compared to the same period last year. That’s a big drop. What we don’t know is how that translates across retail, hospitality, and services — or how many dollars didn’t make it into our local economy as a result.

That’s a data gap we would love to close.

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Connecting the Dots

The decline in cross-border visits this year isn’t a mystery. Survey data and community conversations point to a clear culprit: the trade war and political climate.

Many Canadians have told us directly that they’re reconsidering trips across the border because of how the rhetoric makes them feel — unwelcome, or even unsafe. That perception matters.

So yes — let’s not cheese them off.

(For anyone unfamiliar: “cheesed off” is Canadian slang for being annoyed or upset — and very on theme here.)

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A Note About a Recent Interview

I recently sat down with Fox 13 Seattle to discuss cross-border impacts. Reporter Lauren Donovan and her team were total pros — we had a thoughtful 25-minute conversation. About 90 seconds made it to air, mostly focused on the exchange rate and the impact it has always had on our community and economy.

To our Canadian friends who were cheesed off by that narrow focus — I’m sorry. Truly. The broader context didn’t make it into the final cut, and I can see how it might have come across as dismissive of the very real and well-established reasons behind the recent drop in visits: the trade war and the political climate. That wasn’t the intent, and I regret how it came across.

(And yes — I know “sorry” is very Canadian of me. Call it cross-border diplomacy.)

That said, exchange rates do matter. They aren’t the whole story — not even close — but they do deeply influence cross-border behavior, especially in a local economy as interconnected as ours.

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A Brief Look at the Numbers

Let’s look at historical exchange rates to better understand the long view:

Since 2018, the Canadian dollar has lost 10–13% of its value, with most years since being down an average of 3–5% from that year’s average. This decline hasn’t reversed post-pandemic, especially in recent years of 2023-2024 — and that absolutely impacts consumer behavior and spending power.

Some additional historical reference points:

• 2003–2006: Exchange hovered around 90%

• 2007: Parity for the first time in over 30 years

• 2008–2009: Near parity early on, then settling around 80% during the Great Recession

• 2010: Back to parity post-Winter Olympics

• 2011: Peaked at 106%, then declined to mid-70s

• 2016: Near historic low of 68.68%

• 2021-2022: Hovered around 80%, but the border was closed for much of this time due to the pandemic

While exchange rate fluctuations are just one piece of the puzzle, they directly affect retail, gas, hospitality, and tourism patterns in Whatcom County.

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Looking Ahead

An exchange rate in the high 70s or low 80s would certainly provide a welcome boost to our economy — but it’s only part of the solution. This was the simple reality that I was trying to share in the portion that aired. We also think cross border shopping habits structurally changed during the pandemic while the border was shut down – a bump in the exchange rate could provide somewhat of a bounce back.

Rebuilding trust and connection with our Canadian neighbors is equally, if not more, important. That means continuing to listen, to acknowledge concerns, and to ensure our community remains a welcoming, respectful place to visit, shop, and do business.

So — thank a Canuck for spending a buck. And whatever you do… don’t cheese them off.

—

Guy Occhiogrosso
President & CEO
Bellingham Regional Chamber of Commerce

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Here are some source material:
Whatcom Council of Governments (WCOG) Exchange Rate & Border Volumes
History of Canadian-US exchange rate
Historical exchange rate data
Historical exchange rate data